This transcript has been automatically generated.

Kathryn Toope: Welcome to Bare Naked Money, the podcast where we strip down the complex world of finance to its bare essentials. With your hosts, Josh Sheluk and Colin White, portfolio managers with Verecan Capital Management Inc.

Colin White: Welcome to a very special edition of Barenaked Money where we make fun of ourselves for what we predicted was gonna happen 2025 and take a leap of faith and try to come up with what’s gonna happen in 2026 as well. So this is gonna be exciting. And Josh, as usual, is completely prepared. He has seven whole predictions for next year that I can’t wait to hear. This is always a lot of fun, Josh.

So why don’t you kick it off? And let’s begin the process by how do we do in predicting 2025?

Josh Sheluk: Yep. So we will record these as two separate podcasts. So if you’re listening, we’ll do the 2025 recap first and next podcast we’ll follow-up with the 2026 predictions.

Colin White: Cliffhanger.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. So 2025. Okay. I’m gonna go through the list as we recorded them last year. As usual, we have some some good calls, some bad calls, some kind of in the middle, maybe some a little bit outlandish that we could probably score however we want.

But as usual, you get to to score how good or bad these predictions were. But the first one, and actually before I even go into the predictions, it’s kind of interesting to go back and listen to what we were talking about last year, always is. But one of the things that I found interesting was we talked a lot about tariffs and little did we know how much tariffs were going to dominate the 2025 discourse, but, and we didn’t give any firm predictions on on tariffs specifically, but it really maybe maybe that was a bit of foreshadowing inadvertently for what 2025 was gonna be like.

Colin White: Look at us being smart.

Josh Sheluk: So my first prediction from last year was that Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency would not find $2,000,000,000,000 of savings that they promised.

Colin White: They found four, didn’t they, Josh? Like, I think it was four, wasn’t it?

Josh Sheluk: Well, if you remember, funny enough, you you kinda pushed back and said, of course, they’ll find it. They’ll they’ll score however they want. And there does seem to be some of that gamification going on. Best I could tell, I tried to get some unbiased sources like just true pure fiscal data, because obviously this could be scored in a bunch of different ways. But fiscal spending seems like it has gone up a little bit over the course of the year.

Now, this is the sort of government wide, US wide. So it’s hard to say, were there any efficiencies found in there? And the deficit has gone down a little bit. And I always say a little bit, was estimating most recently at about $40,000,000,000 that the deficit had decreased year to date for 2025. And we’re recording this on December 30, just so everyone knows.

So the 2,000,000,000,000 seems to be fairly outlandish claim and seems to have missed the mark a lot, but I’m sure if you blink your eyes or squint your eyes enough, you could probably come up with some types of savings in there.

Colin White: No. Josh, you’re you’re you’re tracking it all wrong. So I’ll use my advanced skills of accountancy to change the the goalpost here because they’ve spent more on on things that matter. So they did save money on a whole bunch of things no longer doing, but they’ve just reallocated that to invest in things that are more important to the American people, like free drugs and, you know, safer borders, all those things. Right?

So come on, Josh. That That’s low hanging fruit. I could absolutely take that side of the argument.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. Yeah. Well, were some arguments made along those same lines, but where the Department of Government Efficiency, Doge, had suggested that they’ve saved $214,000,000,000 this year, these I don’t want to call them impartial because I feel like everything is partial to one side of the equation. But these other sides of the argument said that yes, but some of the spending on other areas increased to somewhat offset that. So anyway, we can probably move on because we could argue about this one all day, and I don’t think either of us care that much.

Colin White: But hey, I think it’s important to note that that department is no longer in existence. It has flew too close to the sun. It lasted less than a year and it is now no longer part of our discourse as you would say.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. Well, I guess we could say that maybe it found a true $2,000,000,000,000 in savings so quickly that it is Uber efficient and just needed to move on.

Colin White: There we go. That’s how that Nice bow on top of that one.

Josh Sheluk: All right. So second here is a tariff related prediction. I had said that there are approximately 5,000,000 people that believe in tariffs as a good thing, but don’t understand what tariffs are. Now, I don’t know how we could actually score this one, but I would say based off of all of the content that’s been published out there, I’d probably vastly underestimated the number of people that don’t understand tariffs. What do think?

Colin White: For sure. And I always go back to, you know, the number one Google term after Brexit, the morning after Brexit was what is Brexit? You know, tariffs are a nuanced thing, and the and the the disappointing thing is both sides of the discords are stupid. You know, for those who argue that it has doesn’t have any of the intended effects, well, they’re missing the mark. And for those who think it’s somehow free money, they’ve missed the mark too.

You know? But then and then that and that’s my disappointment with with the conversations now is, like, we’re missing the fact that because I’ve watched. I’ve talked to CEOs that are changing the way they manufacture things and have moved operations into The US because of this. That’s that’s what tariffs are designed to do. Not on a huge scale necessarily, but it has had the intended effect.

And my disappointment in humans is that we run to to both ends of the boat and start yelling back and forth at each other, and quite frankly, both sides are stupid. So I would argue probably 98 or 99% of people don’t get it on one side or the other.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. That might be a fair estimate. Now let me ask you this. This is sort of unrelated to the prediction, are you surprised that there haven’t been more macro level impacts of consequence from tariffs this year when you look back?

Colin White: I guess if only you were surprised, I’m surprised at how quickly we seem to have self leveled. Right? Because the global economy, and I’ve said this during COVID, you know, will self level. Like, will flow where it can operate the best. It’s a little bit, I don’t know, awe inspiring or impressive how quickly things have been able to self level because we change one variable and we try to project it forward as if no other variable will change.

That’s just not the way it works because there’s always a knock on effect. Consumer buying patterns change. You know, companies can bring things into current periods, move them to future periods. I mean, there’s all kinds of gamesmanship that go around once the the rules are known. So I think I’m a little impressed honestly with how quickly you’ve self leveled.

And, also, the the announcements coming out weren’t always what the news was. Announcements were changing so quickly. I don’t know, Josh. I’m almost ready to say that I think the markets are maturing past being affected as much as they maybe once were by the bloviations of people?

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. I’ve I’ve thought this a couple times over the past couple of years. Like, when you look go back to COVID, for example, and think of how quickly, again, to use your comment, the market self leveled quite quickly. And the last few years have been an interesting example of things have gone up and down as they always do, but nothing, nothing sort of catastrophically volatile. So it has been interesting.

I think we’ll still be surprised at some point over the next few years at how stupid markets can be again, but it does seem in the moment that things are a bit more mature.

Colin White: I think it feeds right back into the whole idea on why people look at this kind of news and why they look at these kind of things. So looking for a tradable idea, like how you know, the the underlying current, even the people listening to this is, okay. How do how do I position my portfolio? There’s there’s nothing tradable in these. The big news events, big changes in fiscal policy, big changes in the rules of the game, but that doesn’t make it investable because, you know, it the the overall trying to play one side or other guessing how quickly things are gonna get back to equilibrium.

You know, again, there’s no way to know that. But, I mean, again, I think I just put a lot of people out of business, you know, both the people who spend full time listening to it and the people who spend full time creating that kind of content.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. Another sort of highlight of why this stuff’s not investable. I think if you if you gave me all the macroeconomic data this year, like you gave me unemployment data, you gave me GDP, you gave me inflation and asked me, did The US impose tariffs on every other country in the world or not? And I had all that macro data, I would have said, there’s no way. Like, I would have expected such a more dramatic impact to one of those things, whether it’s unemployment or GDP or inflation.

We just haven’t really seen a discernible impact. So very interesting.

Colin White: Maybe there’s some learnings in that that we can take forward in our predictions for 2026. Foreshadowing. Foreshadowing. Foreshadowing. Foreshadowing.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. Alright. My third prediction from from last year was that bonds will outperform the prior year’s return. So basically 2025 bonds would outperform 2024 returns. As we sit here today, this is inconclusive because we’re almost exactly where we were from 2024 to 2025.

So 2024, this is the Canadian aggregate bond market that I’m judging this off of. The return was 4.23%, 2024. And as of today, we’re sitting here at 10AM, December 30, 10AM Eastern Time. So it seems likely that the return will be slightly lower this year than it was the year prior, but very, very close.

Colin White: So you’re a loser?

Josh Sheluk: I think so.

Colin White: But Oh, okay.

Josh Sheluk: But we don’t need to we don’t need to declare that today. We could declare Oh,

Colin White: I think we do. I I’m I’m pretty sure somewhere in this, I’m gonna be a loser. So, I mean, I we need to make sure we mark it down when you when you make a mistake.

Josh Sheluk: Okay. Okay. Good. Well, here’s another one where I think we can very clearly say I’m a loser on. So my prediction was that the economic trend would not continue for 2025.

And this prediction was kinda centered on the idea that running into 2025, we had kind of seen a slowing but still positive growth trajectory, slightly higher but still not so bad unemployment rate and sort of a gradual decline in the inflation rate. So my thought was these things just won’t continue on the same sort of straight line path that they did coming into 2025. And sure enough, I would say that more or less, those trends have continued exactly as is. What do you think?

Colin White: Well, no. I think that’s true, but it is funny because so many of these these these commentaries are about, you know, what’s changing. But very few commentaries are just like, yeah. This is about where it’s gonna be. Like, you know, the Goldilocks effect.

Like, you know, yeah. This is just about right. We we could muddle along at this pace with this balance, and, you know, things should be pretty much good. That’s not a popular opinion. Like, that’s not a that’s not newsworthy.

People aren’t talking like that.

Josh Sheluk: It’s definitely not exciting.

Colin White: Well, but it’s and, you know, there’s no trade to place. Right? So if you’re watching this looking for trading ideas, again, we’ve disappointed you. So I think that I’m still waiting for the great recession of twenty twenty three. You know, I I I have to plug that every once in a while.

You know? But we’ve just been on this steady no. Actually, interesting interesting thing that came out at the end of the year that I think is foreshadow foreshadow foreshadow, you know, the drop in the Canadian population. You know? I think that that, you know, is is something that is undeniably going to have an effect.

Steve, notice I trailed off at the end. Like, I didn’t say what effect it would have. I just said there would be an effect.

Josh Sheluk: True to our predictive nature. We’re ambiguous in our predictions.

Colin White: It definitely could possibly have an effect.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. Now funny enough, I thought I was being ambiguous with that last prediction that the economic trend will not continue, and I was still wrong somehow. So I don’t know what to do.

Colin White: That’s how difficult this is.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah, exactly. Anyway, this is one I think I can probably score as a win. There will be a significant market correction in 2025. We could, I guess, debate on what significant is, but The US was down about 19% in April and the global market down about 17%. So I’d I’d probably call that significant.

Colin White: Yeah. But it was for six seconds. Like, would it it didn’t stick they were sticking around long enough for people to notice. I mean

Josh Sheluk: Well, I I didn’t say how long it was gonna last. I just said that it would occur. So again, I win that one.

Colin White: So it’s not a capital as significant, it’s small, less significant. Okay, I got it.

Josh Sheluk: Another one we could probably squabble over a little bit, but I had said that stock returns will not be close to the long term average. So long term average stock returns, in like the nine to 10% range. Again, as we sit here today, global markets in Canadian dollar terms up about 16%, up a little bit more than 20% in local market terms. The TSX, Canadian stock market up about 32% so far this year. So I don’t think that we would call those close to the long term average.

I I think that that’s, you know, quite far off of the long term average, but you get to be the judge.

Colin White: I judge in your favor. Those are not close to the long term average. And, again, it’s one of those ones that I can find an average as close to. Give me fifteen minutes in Google. I’ll find you an average that’s close to, but those are outsized.

And I think this and surprising on a couple of fronts, and I think we’ll get to it. But our expectations of the Canadian economy this year start did not get reflected in the stock market. And I I I think there’s some extraneous, you know, things out there that are causing that that may or may not be likely to repeat in 2026. I’m doing such a great job. I saw the next podcast, Josh, and it’s just all coming to me natural.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. Yeah. Well, I do have some some statistics that are related to this that will, I’ll tease for the next podcast as well. But I think one of the things you said, the market reality might not have matched the economic reality in Canada this year. Can I give you this statistic?

Canadian material sector, so a fairly significant chunk of the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX composite up a 100% this year. A 100%.

Colin White: Alright. I’ll I’ll say it on this podcast because I’ll repeat the next podcast. Don’t think that’s likely for next year.

Josh Sheluk: You don’t think so?

Colin White: I don’t think we’ll see another 100% move.

Josh Sheluk: Probably not. Moving on, so this is my seventh and last prediction from last year. You did have one as well, but this is probably my favorite one. And I think you’ll like it the most. I had predicted that at least one leveraged single stock ETF would blow up in 2025.

Colin White: Oh, we found it, did it?

Josh Sheluk: So again, you get to be the judge, negative 90%. Is that enough of a blow up to call it a blow up?

Colin White: That’s a plunge. That’s a blowup. That’s a debacle. Which which one was it? Just out of blind curiosity.

Josh Sheluk: So there were two leveraged ETFs in The US that are based off of MicroStrategy. This is a company we’ve talked a lot about in somewhat joking way this year. So MicroStrategy for people that don’t follow the company closely, it’s a company that had some sort of cryptocurrency related technology. And over the last couple of years, they decided, we’re not gonna actually manage our technology anymore. We’re just gonna buy Bitcoin.

And so that’s that’s literally all they did. They just bought cryptocurrency, put it on their balance sheet, and people really bought into the story. Somehow the company’s stock was worth about twice as much relative to the value of the Bitcoin or the cryptocurrency that it actually had on its balance sheet. So this would be like, my company, all it does is have a million dollars in the bank, but you’d be willing to pay $2,000,000 for that company, which absolutely makes no sense. So maybe in hindsight, it really shouldn’t be that surprising that MicroStrategy, the company is down about 50% this year.

So the leveraged ETFs are down almost a 100%.

Colin White: And I think in back, Josh, I’m just trying to think of maybe bear with me here because I’m trying to gonna try to create a rationale for what people were thinking when they did this because there have been issues with getting access to be able to invest real money in Bitcoin. There’s been a hunger to invest real money in Bitcoin and, you know, to take something that’s already publicly listed and turn it into a de facto Bitcoin claim. That was probably then and with the onslaught of ETFs and other ways to get in to buy Bitcoin, that maybe that was the arc that they ran this year. Is is that a remotely plausible way of looking at it?

Josh Sheluk: So I I think I can’t remember exactly when the Bitcoin ETFs launched, but I believe it was 2024. But and there’s been there’s been Bitcoin ETFs in Canada for several several years now. But in The US, they were a bit slower to allow Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to be accessible through an ETF. So first of all, it’s really not that difficult to buy Bitcoin. Like anybody can do it these days and it’s fairly accessible.

You can do it through a lot of different platforms. So that’s one thing. But even if you were worried about buying Bitcoin itself, you would have been able to buy these Bitcoin ETFs throughout all of 2025. I’m quite certain of that. So I don’t think that that argument has any merit, like people looking to get access to Bitcoin investments because you could have just bought the ETF where it’s not worth twice the amount of the Bitcoin that they hold.

It’s it’s closer to to par. So this is one of the least logical investments that I’ve have seen in a long time.

Colin White: I was grasping at straws, just trying to make up a story. But now when the 30 year old whiz kid tells me it’s easy to do something, I mean, doesn’t make it easy to do something, Josh.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. So you had a really prescient, I think predictions this time last year, because you had said that 2025 would be the return of the day trader.

Colin White: Oh.

Josh Sheluk: And I think you’re pretty much bang on with that. I had felt that the day trader had still been around leading into 2025, but it’s definitely got more prevalent throughout this year. And people are riding high at the moment because most people have had a pretty good year day trading or doing their own thing or buying micro strategy or whatever they’ve done this year.

Colin White: Yeah. And let’s not I’ll take some wind on my own sails. The only reason that that really has has finished in that way is that we’re still running this bull market. Like, no matter what you did, if you threw I mean, with maybe the possible exception of actually buying Bitcoin. You know, there’s many, many other ways that people made a lot of money this year, so the confidence is really running high, and that’s dangerous.

So but it’s yeah. You’re right. It looks really easy right now. And when it looks easy, you can do a a ten minute course in foreign exchange trading and open your account, get to work, and make money. Or any of the other scams?

Can I call them scams? Any other things online that you can go learn how to do quickly and try to profit from are gonna get a lot of audience right now because there’s everybody’s got a success story.

Josh Sheluk: That was it for the predictions. Did you have any surprises? I’m sure there’s lots of surprises that we could look at, but did you have any big thematic surprises that you can think of from 2025?

Colin White: Well, yeah, I I I think that, you know, we we were right. Yes. So wrong in our our take on the Canadian economy this year because I do think domestically, you know, the Canadian economy is not not robust, but has been absolutely carried by this this rally that we’ve seen in the materials, doctor Manley Gold, which, again, I I don’t have an opinion on gold, so I wouldn’t have said that it was going anywhere. But that’s really what’s driven the Canadian market. And the problem with that is is that people then extrapolate, oh, the Canadian market is strong.

Therefore, all I need to do is invest in Canada, and I’ll be good. And that’s a very dangerous conclusion to draw. But I think that domestically, we’ve got some real issues that I don’t you know, absent you know, if we see oil go to a $120 a barrel or gold goes up another thousand dollars an ounce, the Canadian stock market will have another good year next year regardless of what’s going on in the Canadian economy per se. But I think those are both unlikely. And I I I continue to think that the Canadian economy has got, you know, a lot of weight strapped to it right now.

And the uncertainty in The US is is gonna continue to weigh on trying to make any kind of meaningful long term progress.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah, it’s an interesting example of how the economy and the stock market are two different things because I think it’s very accurate to say that the Canadian economy has not been extremely strong this year. Maybe you could say it’s not even been decent this year. Could say it’s on the weaker side of decent. Yet the market, the stock market has done very well. So now we’ve known this for a long time.

Like those two things are not too often running in lockstep, but it’s a pretty stark example of how that can play out.

Colin White: I think it’s a real important example because it’s a demonstration of how a narrowly led market and you could extrapolate that same line of thinking to The US market where you’ve got a narrowly led market and, you know, how that’s not necessarily representative of long term success or persistent success. You know? Now, ideally, as that narrow leadership falls off, there is some underlying growth in the overall economy that catches the the momentum and keeps things moving. But those are those can be two very disparate things. Like, they can move in different directions at different times from our sort of a lesson.

There we go. Welcome to school. You know, be be careful. Even if your economic predictions, right, that may have nothing to do with what’s gonna happen in the stock market.

Josh Sheluk: Yep. Yep. Good point. I think the thing that I have found most surprising this year, and this is not one specific thing. It’s a variety of things that all kind of relate to the same theme, is how, and I’m gonna use the term rules very loosely here, how rules have kind of fallen apart this year.

And when say that, I’ll give you some examples. So leading into and you’re talking about the recession that was supposed to happen in 2023, this still has not materialized. There were some really good reasons to think that a recession was gonna happen. A couple being that leading economic indicators had been quite negative for a while, and they’re still actually negative today, as we say here. So it’s been like three years of negative leading economic indicators.

And historically, the rule would be that that’s a very good predictor of a recession. Same thing with inverted yield curve. I think eight of the nine last inverted yield curves prior to this last stint had led to a recession. And so there are, these quote unquote rules that sort of triggered things that you would think would happen that haven’t come to be. I’ll give you some market examples.

When the market’s gone down for the most part over the last fifteen, twenty years, The U. S. Market’s done better than global markets. It’s a bit more resilient. There’s high quality companies, etcetera.

That wasn’t the case earlier this year when you had the drawdown. The U. S. Dollar has tended to be a good place to park some money when markets go down. That hasn’t been the case this year.

It wasn’t the case through the sort of mess in Q2 after tariffs were announced. So some of these rules, Bitcoin’s another one. Market’s up, Bitcoin’s out. Right? Not this year.

So some of these these things that I think we’ve come to believe are true most of the time or almost all the time have just not played out this year. And that makes things particularly challenging.

Colin White: Yeah. I thought I’ve always, and again, been at the game a little bit longer. Leading indicators, I always kinda stick around because, you know, they they can work for a dataset, but you never know what the next, know, is around the next corner. But I I think that it’s important to continue that that reasoning to to bring it to a conclusion that we’re not saying that it, you know, it doesn’t matter. We’re saying that it doesn’t change an investment process.

You you just because you don’t know these things doesn’t mean you can’t allocate a portfolio. You allocate the portfolio understanding you don’t know these things, and it’s a whole again, I keep using the example. If you think it’s gonna be a dry summer, don’t change what you’re gonna plant. Just find better access to water in case that happens. Behave in a way that it allows for all of these outcomes, then you’re not beholden to one particular outcome.

And, you know, that’s our our overarching message and it has been through most of our podcasts. You know, we’ll examine the stuff that’s out there, what people are believing, what’s moving the market in the short term and kinda dismantle it. But at the end of the day, it’s not material to to making a portfolio allocation. Time is the only thing that’s really going to make your portfolio allocations work. You know, trying to guess what the next announcement’s gonna be, what the Fed is thinking, or what if Maclin’s gonna do next is is is not there’s no way to do it reliably enough to make meaningful.

And even if we could get those individual news items proper, the market reaction to the market’s gonna trade based on expectations. It’s not gonna trade based on that news.

Josh Sheluk: I I I guess I would just emphasize that even the most seemingly reliable indicators can fall flat on their face.

Colin White: And and that’s not bad if it’s just an an antidote. Like, if you say, oh, that’s interesting. But if you’ve taken all of your money and invested it on one one outcome and that doesn’t turn out, now you have a problem.

Josh Sheluk: Yeah. The last 10 times x has meant y. But this if you position your entire portfolio and this time that doesn’t happen, then then what?

Colin White: Correlation versus causation. Right? Yeah. And it’s tough. Listen.

And I and I I want to use more minutes and more words on this because know, this is a message I think that really needs to get out there that, you know, most of what people spend their time trying to predict is is not useful. It it’s not helpful. In fact, if anything, it’s it’s it’s destroys wealth faster than it builds it. And, you know, so walking around in the chaos saying, yep. I’ve got no idea what’s gonna happen next and I’m okay.

Like, that’s that’s really the mindset to develop if you’re going to be successful longer term. All the rest of it’s just it’s a funny story. Maybe it’ll be maybe it’ll be a movie one day, but it’s nothing that you can use to make a decision to invest your money.

Josh Sheluk: Any final thoughts or final overall grade that you wanna apply as we wrap up here?

Colin White: I didn’t think of a grade of all the places I thought you’d go with this. I would give this year a a very healthy c plus. Right? Because I I think that we got it done. It wasn’t pretty.

It wasn’t comfortable, but we got it done. You know? And I’m gonna give it a solid c plus.

Josh Sheluk: Alright. Similar to my thoughts, I would grade our predictions as both an a minus and a d minus. Some were really good, some were really bad, on average c plus. Perfect.

Colin White: Well, actually, in context, I was grading the year. I wasn’t grading our predictions. I think our predictions are a solid b plus. I would I was I even when we were wrong, we were entertaining. So

Josh Sheluk: Great. And as always, our our predictions are not meant and our recap of our predictions are not meant to be investment ideas. What we’re trying to do is shed a little bit of light on the things that really should matter to people that are out there.

Colin White: If you’re still listening at this point and you’re considering any of this as actual investment advice, oh my goodness, if you go back and listen again, you missed the plot. And if you still think it’s investment advice, call me.

Kathryn Toope: If your current financial adviser cannot explain how they and their firm are compensated, that’s problem. They really should be able to answer that question before you accept their advice. And if their answers leave you with more questions than confidence, it might be time to seek advice that aligns with your best interests. Contact us. No strings attached.

You can find us at annoyingthecompetition.com. For more information on the subject of today’s podcast or any other financial topic, please visit us online at verecan.com. That’s verecan.com. There’s plenty of information there, or you can reach out to someone on the team. Thanks for listening.

Please note, the information provided in this podcast is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as financial investment, legal tax, accounting, or other professional advice. Our discussions are not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to make any specific investments. Any decisions based on information contained in this podcast are the sole responsibility of the listener. We strongly advise consulting with a professional financial adviser before making any financial decisions.

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